The kind of flooding and mudslides that recently devastated the town of Montecito could also happen in the Bay Area, thanks to the more intense atmospheric rivers thatâalong with more frequent droughts and longer, fiercer wildfire seasonsâclimate change is expected to bring to California.
These swathes of water vapor from the tropics can be hundreds of miles wide and thousands of miles long, and bring with them enormous quantities of water; the one that arrived in early January dropped more than 30 inches of rain statewide. In Montecito, which had just been ravaged by Decemberâs Thomas Fire, half an inch of rain fell in a matter of minutes and caused deadly flooding and mudslides. In the Bay Area, atmospheric rivers already cause more than half of the major floods, and more than 70 percent of those in the North Bay. But predicting when and where flood waters will rise is difficult. While the National Weather Service has radars that track storms regionally, the current...
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According to a worrisome article in the January issue of Bay Nature, the regionâs future is increasingly fire-prone, thanks to climate change, population trends, and a legacy of strict fire suppression. Yet while the first two are beyond the scope of a single city or agency to manage, reducing fuel loads in forests and shrublands more actively, through prescribed burns and mechanical thinning, may help mitigate future catastrophes. At a gathering organized by the Bay Area Open Space Council last November, attendees seemed receptive to the idea. East Bay Regional Park District general manager Bob Doyle implored others to use the recent North Bay fires as motivation to re-examine their fuels and forest-management practices. Cyndy Shafer of California State Parks said that while...
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From the pedestrian bridge between the Oakland Coliseum and the BART station, the view of Damon Slough–a 25-foot-wide canal of muddy, litter-choked water–belies its increasing prominence in the flood-futures of east Oakland. A study by the Metropolitan Transportation Commission did the math, adding the impacts of rising sea levels on these Oakland flatlands to predictions of more frequent, more extreme storm events and urban runoff. âThatâs when water starts coming out of manholes,â says Kris May, a coastal engineer who worked on the study. Redevelopment plans for the Coliseum area take some sea level rise into account, but not the water added by storms to aging drainage systems and swollen sloughs. For the area around the Coliseum, the extra effects...
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The project, along with four others in the Bay Area and Southern California, is featured in a new report, Case Studies of Natural Shoreline Infrastructure in Coastal California. Much of the stateâs dunescape was built over or hauled away before its value as habitat for unique species and a buffer against climate change was recognized. San Franciscoâs dunes are long gone, and with them the endemic Xerces blue butterfly. Humboldtâs 32-mile stretch still shelters endangered plants like the Menziesâ wallflower and beach layia. Invasive European beachgrass not only chokes out natives; it pins the dunes in place, constraining their ability to move inland as the sea encroaches. Led by US Fish and Wildlife Service biologist Andrea Pickart, federal and state...
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As climate change threatens to upend precipitation patterns and disrupt water supplies, agencies are increasingly searching for ways to wring more benefits out of every drop. Valley Water (Santa Clara) is seeking to take integrated water management planning to the next level through its One Water initiative. âThe idea is to manage all water â treated water, groundwater, stormwater, flood water, water for habitat, species and Baylands â as one resource,â says the Districtâs Brian Mendenhall.
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When fire strikes upper watersheds like it did last October, responses can vary widely depending on land use and ownership. âWe view wildfire as a natural process,â says Cyndy Shafer of California State Parks. Wildlands and backcountry areas have largely been left alone, but itâs a different story when lands are managed not for ecosystems but for drinking-water quality. âYou want to minimize the erosion that occurs on site,â says Scott Hill of the East Bay Municipal Utility District, âwe donât want sediment in our storage reservoirs.â Whatâs best must be considered on a case-by-case basis.
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Pump capacity, reliability, and cost are already big concerns for flood-control and sea level rise managers. âGallon for gallon, itâs easily the most expensive way to deal with water,â says Roger Leventhal, a senior engineer with the Marin County Department of Public Works. âItâs not the ideal solution, but itâs the one weâre falling into.â New pumps, while costly in both dollars and electricity, are currently in the works. âIt seems unlikely for us as a region to get away with increasing the number of pumps 100-fold, which is what we would have to do,â says Lindy Lowe, former Bay Conservation and Development Commision planning director.
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âWeâre finally seeing a change in paradigm,â says Brett Milligan regarding how sediment is treated in the Bay Area. What was once considered waste is now considered a resource, and a group called âPublic Sediment,â part of the Bay Area Resilient by Design Challenge, are proposing mud rooms, mud berms, mud pathways, and top-to-bottom mud management to better build up Bay Area shorelines and keep them above rising water.
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Experts monitoring 16 months of plant growth on a humpbacked levee experiment on the San Leandro shore, a project led by the Oro Loma Sanitary District, found early weed colonization followed by rapid dominance of target native perennial vegetation. âNative vegetation outcompeted weeds,â says Peter Baye, who designed the planting palette for this multi-benefit infrastructure project. The results were apparent during an October 2017 tour for international design teams looking at homegrown innovations in sea level rise adaptation as part of the Resilient By Design Bay Area Challenge (see photo). With so much of the Bay shoreline in need of protection from increased flooding, as well as habitat for wetland species at risk and new wastewater infrastructure, progress on this experimental levee is being...
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A new web page simply titled âFireâ contains a suite of online resources for land owners and managers. From finding sources of invasive-free native plant seed to recommending that burned soils be left undisturbed wherever possible (so as to maintain their natural hydrophobic properties, which help prevent erosion), the website offers a trove of tips to help maximize the recovery of a healthy landscape in a series of âAfter the Fireâ fact sheets that include titles such as Dos and Donâts, Preparing for Winter, and Some Notes About Seeding Grasses. JC
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These include lobster, black bass, and Atlantic cod, all of which have supported iconic fisheries along the Eastern seaboard of the United States. âOcean animals are moving ten times faster than animals fleeing climate change on land,â says Rutgers University marine biologist Malin Pinsky, whose Rutgers OceanAdapt website enables visitors to explore changes in marine species distributions over recent decades. These range shifts are causing headaches for fishing fleets, which are forced to head farther out to sea or hundreds of miles further from home ports. But fishes moving north face a catch-22: Water absorbs carbon dioxide more readily when cold, meaning rising greenhouse gas concentrations are causing the oceans to acidify much faster at the poles. KMW
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âPark access should not be considered a luxury. It is a right,â says Mary Creasman, California Director of Public Affairs for The Trust for Public Land. The billâknown as the California Drought, Water, Parks, Climate, Coastal Protection, and Outdoor Access for All Act of 2018ârecognizes the importance parks play in a communityâs quality of life as well as the lack of access to them in urban and disadvantaged communities. The bill provides definitions of âdisadvantagedâ and âseverely disadvantagedâ communities and provides them with guaranteed funding. SB-5 also includes funding to improve climate change and sea level rise resiliency in at-risk areas. âWith existing funding sources disappearing, SB-5 comes at a critical moment to demonstrate Californiaâs renewed commitment to conservation and parks...
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Motivated by the recent drought, local water agencies have formed an unprecedented partnership aimed at reducing the impact of future dry spells. The Bay Area Regional Reliability partnership consists of eight of the regionâs larger water districts. âFor the first time in the history of water deliver in the Bay Area, the water utilities are talking about how to assist each other when there is a shortage.â
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On an uncommonly sultry Thursday evening at the end of August several dozen people gathered in a grove at San Mateoâs Coyote Point, sipping beer and listening to a presentation on sea level rise by staff from San Mateo Countyâs Office of Sustainability. Then, accompanied by the sound of gunshots from a nearby firing range, everyone trooped down to the Bayâs edge, where temporary markers indicated how high the water would rise under three different scenarios. In the most dire projection, water would cover the heads of the people standing on the beach. The event, âShrinking Shores,â was presented by Sea Change San Mateo County, one of a handful of county-level projects around the Bay that aim to assess local vulnerability to sea...
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As Bay Area cities and counties grapple with the formidable challenge of preparing for a higher San Francisco Bay, there is perhaps no better example of the obstacles and opportunities than the effort underway to adapt Highway 37. The 21-mile North Bay corridor running from Vallejo to Novato has long been a source of tranquility and frustration. The highway offers sweeping views of tidal baylands dotted with roosting waterfowl and shorebirds plumbing mudflats for food, along with mile-upon-mile of open space. And commuters often have ample time to enjoy the scenery: Highway 37 is one of the most congested in the region. Congestion isnât the only problem facing the highway. This past winter a combination of storms and high tides...
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 The suits, filed in California Superior Court, seek compensatory and punitive damages and other remedies for the ongoing harm that oil, gas and coal cause by contributing to global warming and sea level rise. A 2009 Pacific Institute study calculated that San Mateo has more property and people at risk from sea level rise than any California county, while in Marin more than 12,000 homes, businesses and institutions, with an assessed value of $16 billion could be at risk from tides and surge flooding by the end of the century. The suits claim that the companies have known about the dangers posed by greenhouse gases for nearly fifty years and sought to conceal them from the public and encourage the...
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The 2017 update to the Central Valley Flood Protection Plan, to be released later this summer, radically revises the flood control strategies that have prevailed for more than a century. The plan recognizes the connections between the flood system, the water system and the ecosystem, and relies less on levees and more on floodplain restoration to upgrade the stateâs aging and inadequate flood control infrastructure.
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When Bay Area voters approved Measure AA in June 2016 they not only created a significant new source of environmental funding, they also made California history, levying a parcel tax across the entire region for the first time. The measure, which resulted in creation of the SF Bay Restoration Authority, may be a catalyst for a regional approach to wetland restoration, rising sea levels and other challenges.
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Walking in the door of the fourth Ocean Climate Summit this May and finding Amy Hutzel, long-time chair of the committee in charge of implementing a conservation plan for the San Francisco Estuary, I asked her what she was doing out of her watershed? âDipping my toe in the Pacific, â she said. âFor a while now, weâve been working to build partnerships inland and offshore. Itâs all one estuary.â
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Whatever the âperturbationâ coming our way â a flood, a drought, a weed or Donald Trump â our recovery, in the aftermath, depends on something ecologists call resilience. Itâs a term everyone is pasting onto their management initiatives these days. But what exactly does it mean?
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Nothing could be stranger than sitting in the dark with thousands of suits and heels, watching a parade of promises to decarbonize from companies and countries large and small, reeling from the beauties of big screen rainforests and indigenous necklaces, and getting all choked up.
It was day two of the September 2018 Global Climate Action Summit in San Francisco when I felt it.
At first I wondered if I was simply starstruck. Most of us labor away trying to fix one small corner of the planet or another without seeing the likes of Harrison Ford, Al Gore, Michael Bloomberg, Van Jones, Jerry Brown â or the ministers or mayors of dozens of cities and countries â in person, on stage and at times angry enough to spit. And between these luminaries a steady stream of CEOs, corporate sustainability officers, and pension fund managers promising percentages of renewables and profits in their portfolios dedicated to the climate cause by 2020-2050.
I tried to give every speaker my full attention: the young man of Vuntut Gwichin heritage from the edge of the Yukonâs Arctic National Wildlife Refuge who pleaded with us not to enter his sacred lands with our drills and dependencies; all the women â swathed in bright patterns and head-scarfs â who kept punching their hearts. âMy uncle in Uganda would take 129 years to emit the same amount of carbon as an American would in one year,â said Oxfamâs Winnie Byanyima.
âOur janitors are shutting off the lights you leave on,â said Aida Cardenas, speaking about the frontline workers she trains, mostly immigrants, who are excited to be part of climate change solutions in their new country.
The men on the stage, strutting about in feathers and pinstripes, spoke of hopes and dreams, money and power. âThe notion that you can either do good or do well is a myth we have to collectively bust,â said New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy whose state is investing heavily in offshore wind farms.
âClimate change isnât just about risks, itâs about opportunities,â said Blackrock sustainable investment manager Brian Deese.
But it wasnât all these fine speeches that started the butterflies. Halfway through the second day of testimonials, it was a slight white-haired woman wrapped in an azure pashmina that pricked my tears. One minute she was on the silver screen with Alec Baldwin and the next she taking a seat on stage. She talked about trees. How trees can solve 30% of our carbon reduction problem. How we have to stop whacking them back in the Amazon and start planting them everywhere else. I couldnât help thinking of Dr. Seuss and his truffala trees. Jane Goodall, over 80, is as fierce as my Lorax. Or my daughterâs Avatar.
Analyzing my take home feeling from the event I realized it wasnât the usual fear â killer storms, tidal waves, no food for my kids to eat on a half-baked planet â nor a newfound sense of hope â Iâve always thought nature will get along just fine without us. What I felt was relief. People were actually doing something. Doing a lot. And there was so much more we could do.
As we all pumped fists in the dark, as the presentations went on and on and on because so many people and businesses and countries wanted to STEP UP, I realized how swayed I had let myself be by the doomsday news mill.
âWe must be like the river, â said a boy from Bangladesh named Risalat Khan, who had noticed our Sierra watersheds from the plane. âWe must cut through the mountain of obstacles. Letâs be the river!â
Or as Harrison Ford less poetically put it: âLetâs turn off our phones and roll up our sleeves and kick this monsterâs ass.â
4th California Climate Change Assessment Blues
by Isaac Pearlman
Since Californiaâs last state-led climate change assessment in 2012, the Golden State has experienced a litany of natural disasters. This includes four years of severe drought from 2012 to 2016, an almost non-existent Sierra Nevada snowpack in 2014-2015 costing $2.1 billion in economic losses, widespread Bay Area flooding from winter 2017 storms, and extremely large and damaging wildfires culminating with this yearâs Mendocino Complex fire achieving the dubious distinction of the largest in state history. Californiaâs most recent climate assessment, released August 27th, predicts that for the state and the Bay Area, we can expect even more in the future.
The California state government first began assessing climate impacts formally in 2006, due to an executive order by Governor Schwarzenegger. Californiaâs latest iteration and its fourth overall, includes a dizzying array of 44 technical reports; three topical studies on climate justice, tribal and indigenous communities, and the coast and ocean; as well as nine region-specific analyses.
The results are alarming for our stateâs future: an estimated four to five feet of sea level rise and loss of one to two-thirds of Southern California beaches by 2100, a 50 percent increase in wildfires over 25,000 acres, stronger and longer heat waves, and infrastructure like airports, wastewater treatment plants, rail and roadways increasingly likely to suffer flooding.
For the first time, Californiaâs latest assessment dives into climate consequences on a regional level. Academics representing nine California regions spearheaded research and summarized the best available science on the variable heat, rain, flooding and extreme event consequences for their areas. For example, the highest local rate of sea level rise in the state is at the rapidly subsiding Humboldt Bay. In San Diego county, the most biodiverse in all of California, preserving its many fragile and endangered species is an urgent priority. Francesca Hopkins from UC Riverside found that the highest rate of childhood asthma in the state isnât an urban smog-filled city but in the Imperial Valley, where toxic dust from Salton Sea disaster chokes communities â and will only become worse as higher temperatures and less water due to climate change dry and brittle the area.
According to the Bay Area Regional Report, since 1950 the Bay Area has already increased in temperature by 1.7 degrees Fahrenheit and local sea level is eight inches higher than it was one hundred years ago. Future climate will render the Bay Area less suitable for our evergreen redwood and fir forests, and more favorable for tolerant chaparral shrub land. The regionâs seven million people and $750 billion economy (almost one-third of Californiaâs total) is predicted to be increasingly beset by more âboom and bustâ irregular wet and very dry years, punctuated by increasingly intense and damaging storms.
Unsurprisingly, according to the report the Bay Areaâs intensifying housing and equity problems have a multiplier affect with climate change. As Bay Area housing spreads further north, south, and inland the result is higher transportation and energy needs for those with the fewest resources available to afford them; and acute disparity in climate vulnerability across Bay Area communities and populations.
âAll Californians will likely endure more illness and be at greater risk of early death because of climate change,â bluntly states the statewide summary brochure for Californiaâs climate assessment. â[However] vulnerable populations that already experience the greatest adverse health impacts will be disproportionately affected.â
âWeâre much better at being reactive to a disaster than planning ahead,â said UC Berkeley professor and contributing author David Ackerly at a California Adaptation Forum panel in Sacramento on August 27th. âAnd it is vulnerable communities that suffer from those disasters. How much human suffering has to happen before it triggers the next round of activity?â
The assessmentâs data is publicly available online at âCal-adapt,â where Californians can explore projected impacts for their neighborhoods, towns, and regions.